Are off-year elections a good indicator of the President's popularity?

CNN ran an interesting segment today which seemed to imply that today's off-year election results could be an indicator of Obama's popularity, and an indicator of gain or loss in Republican popularity. Even the New York Times website offered this headline for a breaking news article about the elections: "Republicans Sweep Top Races in Setback for Obama," although the story beneath the headline didn't offer any commentary on the significance of the Republicans' wins. But are they right? Are today's off-year elections indicative of changes in national public opinion?

I don't think so.

First of all, the positions up for election today were relatively insignificant on a national scale. There were two elections for U.S. House seats, one in New York and one in California. These seats were vacated when their previous holders resigned to take other jobs. There were two gubernatorial elections, one in Virginia and one in New Jersey. There were mayoral races in several major cities, the most notable being New York City. Considering there are 435 representatives in the House and 50 governors across the nation, four elections out of 485 spots don't count for much, and two congressional seats are not going to alter the Democrats' majority. And on top of all of this, we're talking about elections in only a handful of states. I don't think we can measure the entire country's opinion on the political choices of four states.

Second, I think there is a fundamental difference between how voters approach national elections and how they approach local elections. I'm speaking from personal experience now. I know when I approach an election of national importance, such as a Presidential or U.S. Congressional election, I focus more on issues and party affiliations. I look at what this person has done for issues that I care about, and I examine to what extent their positions on the issues adhere to "the party line." Then I make my decision accordingly. When it comes to local elections, such as a gubernatorial or mayoral election, my decisions are more oriented toward the personal side of things. For example, I might have met a mayoral candidate who happened to strike me as somewhat weasel-ish. So, I don't vote for him. Or, when gubernatorial candidate So-and-so was a state senator, he sponsored a bill for a road improvement project that brought jobs and better roads to my area. So, I vote for him.

I think many voters follow this same general principle, whether they consciously think about it or not. Local elections are necessarily more focused on "me." "How has this guy helped me?" "What impression did I get from that lady?" National elections, on the other hand, seem to be more focused on abstract ideas. "What does this guy believe in or care about?" "What would this lady do if she were given the power of the presidency?"

Given both of these things, I think off-year elections, which are generally about local issue and for local posts, reflect very little about what the general public is thinking about Obama or the GOP.